Monitor Polymarket

${var}, Platform selector with an optional single-market override:

• empty (""), run both platforms from their watchlists.
• polymarket, run Polymarket's whole watchlist (skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md).
• kalshi, run Kalshi's whole watchlist (skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md).
• polymarket:<event-slug>, one ad-hoc Polymarket event (e.g. polymarket:us-x-iran-ceasefire-by).
• kalshi:<event-ticker>, one ad-hoc Kalshi event (e.g. kalshi:KXGDP-26Q2).

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context. Read the last 2 days of memory/logs/ to compare against previous readings and flag new movers (not repeats of yesterday's news).

Why this skill exists

A table of prices isn't useful. An operator reading this notification wants to answer: "is there a market worth forming a view on right now, and why?" Every rule below exists to push output toward that question, suppress noise, rank by decision value, and demand one line of reasoning per alert. This skill covers two venues, Polymarket (crypto-native, CLOB + comments) and Kalshi (regulated, liquidity-weighted signals), and dispatches to the branch(es) the selector asks for.

Dispatch

Parse ${var} into a platform choice and an optional single-market override, then run the matching branch(es).

PLATFORM="both"   # both | polymarket | kalshi
SINGLE=""         # optional single event slug (Polymarket) or ticker (Kalshi)

case "${var}" in
  "")            PLATFORM="both" ;;
  polymarket)   PLATFORM="polymarket" ;;
  kalshi)       PLATFORM="kalshi" ;;
  polymarket:*) PLATFORM="polymarket"; SINGLE="${var#polymarket:}" ;;
  kalshi:*)     PLATFORM="kalshi";     SINGLE="${var#kalshi:}" ;;
  *)            # unrecognised prefix, don't guess a venue; fall back to both watchlists
                PLATFORM="both"; SINGLE=""
                echo "unrecognised selector '${var}', running both watchlists" ;;
esac