Returns Analysis
Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation.
Install
npx skills add anthropics/financial-services --skill returns-analysis -g -a claude-code -y- Repository
- anthropics/financial-services41k
- Category
- Testing
- Updated
- 7d ago
- License
- Apache-2.0
- Context cost
- Lightabout 727 tokens
- Runs scripts
- No, instructions only
What it does
Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation. Models returns across entry multiple, leverage, exit multiple, growth, and hold period scenarios. Use when sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing IC returns exhibits. Triggers on "returns analysis", "IRR sensitivity", "MOIC table", "what's the return at", "model the returns", or "back of the envelope".
Returns Analysis
Workflow
Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs
Ask for (or extract from prior analysis):
Entry:
- Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)
- Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)
- Enterprise value
- Net debt at close
- Equity check size
- Transaction fees & expenses
Financing:
- Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)
- Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)
- Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)
- Equity contribution
Operating Assumptions:
- Revenue growth rate (annual)
- EBITDA margin trajectory
- Capex as % of revenue
- Working capital changes
- Debt paydown schedule
Exit:
- Hold period (years)
- Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)
- Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)
Step 2: Base Case Returns
Calculate:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry EV | |
| Equity invested | |
| Exit EBITDA | |
| Exit EV | |
| Net debt at exit | |
| Exit equity value | |
| MOIC | |
| IRR | |
| Cash-on-cash |
Show the returns waterfall:
- EBITDA growth contribution
- Multiple expansion/contraction contribution
- Debt paydown contribution
- Fee/expense drag
Step 3: Sensitivity Tables
Build 2-way sensitivity matrices:
Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple
| Exit 6x | Exit 7x | Exit 8x | Exit 9x | Exit 10x | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry 7x | |||||
| Entry 8x | |||||
| Entry 9x | |||||
| Entry 10x |
EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry)
Leverage vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry and growth)
Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple
Show both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).
Step 4: Scenario Analysis
Build 3 scenarios:
| Bull | Base | Bear | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | |||
| Exit EBITDA margin | |||
| Exit multiple | |||
| Exit EBITDA | |||
| MOIC | |||
| IRR |
