# Aeon Monitor Kalshi

Watchlist-driven Kalshi prediction-market monitor with cross-venue arb detection vs...

- Repository: https://github.com/BankrBot/skills (1208 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: see repository
- Last updated: 2026-10-31
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-monitor-kalshi -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-monitor-kalshi -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-monitor-kalshi -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-monitor-kalshi -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Watchlist-driven Kalshi prediction-market monitor with cross-venue arb detection vs paired Polymarket markets (fee + slippage adjusted). Surfaces price moves, volume spikes, resolution proximity, and kill-criterion triggers on tracked positions. Silent on unchanged markets. Requires a CFTC-compliant Kalshi account. Triggers: "watch my kalshi markets", "did anything move on kalshi", "kalshi vs polymarket on X", "alert on price changes for my kalshi watchlist".

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# aeon-monitor-kalshi

Designed to pair with `aeon-monitor-polymarket` so the same thesis can be tracked across two regulatory wrappers, CFTC-regulated event contracts on Kalshi vs on-chain on Polymarket.

## Watchlist

```yaml
markets:
  - ticker: PRES-2028-DEM
    side: NO
    entry: 0.62
    target: 0.45
    kill: 0.78
  - ticker: FED-RATE-MAR-25BP
    side: YES
    entry: 0.34
    target: 0.55
    kill: 0.20

cross_venue_pairs:
  - kalshi: PRES-2028-DEM
    polymarket: us-election-2028-winner
    fair_spread_bps: 50   # alert if arb opens beyond this
```

## Alert triggers

Price move ≥ ±5% in 24h, volume spike > 3× 7-day average, resolution within 7 days, kill criterion hit, cross-venue arb spread > `fair_spread_bps` after fees and slippage. Silent on unchanged.

## Kalshi API

```bash
# Market detail
curl -s "https://trading-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/${ticker}" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer ${KALSHI_TOKEN}"

# Orderbook
curl -s "https://trading-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/${ticker}/orderbook" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer ${KALSHI_TOKEN}"
```

## Cross-venue arb

For paired markets, compute spread between Kalshi YES and equivalent Polymarket YES. Adjust for:
- Resolution rule differences (Kalshi often more conservative).
- Fees (Kalshi maker/taker, Polymarket gas).
- Liquidity, an arb requiring distortion of the smaller book isn't an arb.

Surface only when net edge after fees + slippage clears the configured fair-spread threshold.

## Bankr integration

Kalshi requires a U.S. CFTC-compliant account, so the skill is read-only here. The Polymarket leg of a cross-venue arb can be executed via Bankr Submit / AgenticBets while the operator handles Kalshi manually.

## Required keys

`KALSHI_API_TOKEN` from your Kalshi account dashboard.

## Rules

The rest: https://github.com/BankrBot/skills/blob/HEAD/aeon-monitor-kalshi/SKILL.md