# Aeon Token Pick

One token recommendation and one prediction-market pick per run, with falsifiable...

- Repository: https://github.com/BankrBot/skills (1208 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: see repository
- Last updated: 2026-10-31
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-token-pick -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-token-pick -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-token-pick -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add BankrBot/skills --skill aeon-token-pick -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

One token recommendation and one prediction-market pick per run, with falsifiable thesis, entry, sizing guidance, and an explicit kill criterion. Skip branch fires when no candidate has both a named/dated catalyst and asymmetric upside. The discipline is the skip branch, empirically the highest-EV output on flat days is no pick. Triggers: "what should I trade today", "give me a token pick", "prediction-market rec", "is there an asymmetric setup".

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# aeon-token-pick

At most one token pick and one prediction-market pick per run. Each pick must have:

- **Falsifiable thesis**, one sentence.
- **Entry**, price + venue.
- **Kill criterion**, the specific signal that says the thesis is wrong.
- **Sizing**, small / medium / large vs the operator's stack.
- **Time horizon**, hours / days / weeks.

If no candidate clears the bar, named, dated catalyst plus asymmetric setup, the skill returns `NO_PICK` with the top three near-misses and what would have tipped them over.

## Sample output

```
TOKEN: $XYZ, entry $0.42 on Base (Aerodrome WETH/XYZ pool)
Thesis: ProductHunt launch May 15 + commit-velocity surge signals real shipping
Kill: launch delayed past May 22 OR daily commits drop below 5 for 3 days
Sizing: medium · Horizon: 2-3 weeks

MARKET: NO on "EIGEN unlock delayed past Q2" @ 0.31
Thesis: on-chain timelock activity confirms unlock; delay risk overpriced
Kill: official delay announcement before market resolves
Sizing: small (binary) · Resolution: July 1
```

No-pick output:

```
NO_PICK, 2026-05-12

Top near-misses:
1. $XYZ, catalyst unclear, asymmetry weak (upside +30%, downside -50%)
2. NO on "EIGEN delayed past Q2", mispriced but no dated resolution

Would tip the call: a dated catalyst on $XYZ; a specific committee date for EIGEN.
```

## Rules

- Falsifiable thesis or no pick.
- Cite the catalyst by name and date. "Sentiment turning" is not a catalyst.
- Crowdedness penalty, if every newsletter is recommending it, the asymmetry is gone.
- NO_PICK is a valid output. Manufactured picks burn capital.

Pairs naturally with `aeon-narrative-tracker` (narrative fit), `aeon-monitor-runners` (momentum candidates), `aeon-unlock-monitor` (supply-side risk), and Bankr Submit / AgenticBets for execution.