# Binance Prediction Updown

Scaffold for assembling prediction-market strategies on Binance Agentic Wallet, for...

- Repository: https://github.com/binance/binance-skills-hub (1115 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: see repository
- Last updated: 2026-10-26
- Runs scripts: yes, review before use

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Scaffold for assembling prediction-market strategies on Binance Agentic Wallet, for recurring BTC Up/Down rounds. Wires round enumeration, market screening, two-step ordering, fill and settlement confirmation and redemption into one runnable pipeline, and exposes every probability judgement as a hook. Ships no strategy of its own. Trigger on: up down prediction, BTC up or down, prediction market bot, hourly prediction rounds, trade up/down automatically, prediction market strategy, prediction calibration, redeem winnings automatically. NOT for: single manual predictions (use binance-agentic-wallet), on-chain token copy trading (binance-onchain-copy-trader), signal queries (binance-trading-signal).

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Binance Prediction Up/Down

A scaffold for trading recurring BTC Up/Down rounds: a round scheduler, screening gates, a
decision contract that compares your probability against the quote, order and settlement
handling, redemption, and two offline evaluation harnesses.

> ## Read this first
>
> **Every risk control, stake size and threshold here is a *suggestion*, not a safeguard.**
>
> - **This skill ships no strategy.** The bundled hook is an example that makes the pipeline run;
>   the numbers it reads are ones you measure and supply. The reference signal documented under
>   "Strategy hooks" nets roughly +0.65% per round against a ±1.9pp error bar, a worked example
>   of the bar, not a configuration to copy.
> - **A hit rate is not an edge.** If the market already prices the state your signal keys on,
>   a 58% hit rate earns zero. Only step 3 of the walkthrough can rule that out.
> - Positions can expire worthless; max loss per round is the stake. There is no stop-loss to
>   place, the position resolves itself.

## Dependencies

| Skill | Used for |
|---|---|
| `binance-agentic-wallet` | `prediction *`, `wallet *` |

Candles come from the public Binance market-data endpoint (`api/v3/klines`), no key, no session.

```bash
baw --version
baw cli-check --required-version "$(grep -m1 requiredCliVersion SKILL.md | tr -dc '0-9.')" --json
```

> **Not published.** This skill lives only where you installed it. `binance-agentic-wallet` comes
> from `https://github.com/binance/binance-skills-hub`; this one does not ship from there yet.

## Getting started

Steps 1 and 3 cost nothing and either can kill the idea. Do both before live mode.

The rest: https://github.com/binance/binance-skills-hub/blob/HEAD/skills/binance-web3/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md