# Epic Hypothesis

Frame an epic as a testable hypothesis with target user, expected outcome, and...

- Repository: https://github.com/deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills (7825 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: see repository
- Last updated: 2026-10-16
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills --skill epic-hypothesis -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills --skill epic-hypothesis -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills --skill epic-hypothesis -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills --skill epic-hypothesis -g -a gemini-cli -y`
Claude Code plugin marketplace: `/plugin marketplace add deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills`

## Description

Frame an epic as a testable hypothesis with target user, expected outcome, and validation method. Use when defining a major initiative before roadmap, discovery, or delivery planning.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

## Purpose
Frame epics as testable hypotheses using an if/then structure that articulates the action or solution, the target beneficiary, the expected outcome, and how you'll validate success. Use this to manage uncertainty in product development by making assumptions explicit, defining lightweight experiments ("tiny acts of discovery"), and establishing measurable success criteria before committing to full build-out.

This is not a requirements spec, it's a hypothesis you're testing, not a feature you're committed to shipping.

## Input

**Works best with:** The initiative or epic idea, in whatever form it currently exists, a sentence is enough.
**Also useful:** The target user, the outcome you expect, and how you might measure it (the skill helps you sharpen all three).

Anything supplied with the invocation itself, text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended `ARGUMENTS:` line, counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.

**Arriving empty-handed? That works too.** The skill asks what the initiative is and who it's for, then builds the if/then hypothesis with you.

**Example invocation:** `Frame as an epic hypothesis: adding usage-based alerts so account admins catch overages before invoice shock.`

## Key Concepts

### The Epic Hypothesis Framework
Inspired by Tim Herbig's Lean UX hypothesis format, the structure is:

**If/Then Hypothesis:**
- **If we** [action or solution on behalf of target persona]
- **for** [target persona]
- **Then we will** [attain or achieve a desirable outcome or job-to-be-done]

**Tiny Acts of Discovery Experiments:**
- **We will test our assumption by:**
  - [Experiment 1]
  - [Experiment 2]
  - [Add more as necessary]

**Validation Measures:**
- **We know our hypothesis is valid if within** [timeframe]
- **we observe:**
  - [Quantitative measurable outcome]
  - [Qualitative measurable outcome]
  - [Add more as necessary]

The rest: https://github.com/deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills/blob/HEAD/skills/epic-hypothesis/SKILL.md