Impact Analysis

One object carries this skill: the transmission chain, written as event, channel, driver, line item, action. A shock reaches a share price only by reaching a named landing, a financial line item or the valuation input a discount rate moves directly, so a claim that cannot name where it lands is a mood about a theme and does not ship. This is the work between .agents/skills/morning-note/SKILL.md, which says something happened, and the models, which say what a company is worth.

Evidence labels, source tiers, staleness, the readiness posture and the intake limits: .agents/skills/research-conventions/SKILL.md, read before the first deliverable.

The exposure map is the default output. Absent a position list the user supplied, the report names candidates in research-queue language and says in one sentence what would convert the screen into an action. Every name in it is a research candidate until the user says otherwise.

Step 1: Frame the shock and freeze the as-of

Write the event in one sentence carrying four things: what changed, who decided it, the date it takes effect, and what was expected before it. The last one is the whole analysis in miniature: a fully anticipated shock reaches the line item and never reaches the price.

Timing bucket. Every claim in the report carries one of four, and the headline claim carries its bucket in the first two sentences:

Bucket	Window	What lands here
immediate	days	the multiple, sentiment, anything that reprices before a number moves
this quarter	the current reporting period	a line item that moves before the next print
this year	the next four quarters	contract resets, hedge roll-offs, inventory turning over
structural	beyond four quarters	capacity siting, supply-chain relocation, a changed cost curve