Bottleneck Hunter
Supply-chain bottleneck arbitrage.
Install
npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill bottleneck-hunter -g -a claude-code -y- Repository
- HKUDS/Vibe-Trading37.4k
- Category
- Engineering
- Updated
- 3d ago
- License
- MIT
- Context cost
- Mediumabout 2,503 tokens
- Runs scripts
- No, instructions only
What it does
Supply-chain bottleneck arbitrage. Given a super-trend (AI infra, energy transition, defense, semiconductor reshoring, space economy), decompose its physical supply chain down to Layer 2/3 choke points (optics, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, IC substrates, probe cards, specialty fiberglass...) and surface under-the-radar listed companies sitting on each bottleneck. Scores each link on 6 scarcity criteria, applies mandatory valuation gates (PS/PE/safety-margin) via the financial_rigor tool, and Munger-style reverse-validates. Outputs a ranked bottleneck opportunity board. Use when the user wants hidden beneficiaries of a structural trend rather than already-priced leaders.
Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter
Decompose a super-trend (user-specified, e.g. "AI infrastructure", "energy transition") into its physical supply chain and hunt for bottleneck-arbitrage opportunities.
Core Idea
Don't ask "which AI stock to buy", ask "if this trend keeps expanding, which link runs out first?"
Traditional research chases leaders and known tracks. This skill inverts: start from the choke points of the physical supply chain and find companies nobody notices but that the whole industry must wait on when they run short.
The edge: Layer-1 bottlenecks (GPU, HBM, power) are already priced in. The real alpha is in Layer 2 and Layer 3, optical modules, lasers, InP substrates, SOI wafers, epitaxy equipment, wafer-level test, IC substrates, specialty fiberglass.
Step 1: Super-Trend Confirmation
Trend Filter Criteria
| Criterion | Requirement | How to verify |
|---|---|---|
| Durability | ≥3-5 years of certain growth | Search industry forecasts, capex plans |
| Physicality | Needs real hardware/material/equipment build | Distinguish "software upgrade" from "physical expansion" |
| Scale | Global capex >$50B/year | Search top players' capex guidance |
| Acceleration | Demand growth > supply expansion | Compare demand growth vs capacity plans |
Use web_search to verify. Reference super-trends: AI infrastructure, energy transition (nuclear/grid/storage), defense modernization, semiconductor reshoring, space economy.
Step 2: Physical Supply-Chain Decomposition
Don't stop at concepts, decompose to physical entities.
Layer 0 (end): final product/service
Layer 1 (core component): already closely watched → priced in, limited alpha
Layer 2 (sub-component/material): low attention, alpha-rich
Layer 3 (upstream equipment/raw material)
Layer 4 (infrastructure): power, cooling, land, talent, certifications
