Commodity Analysis

Overview

Analyze commodities from four dimensions, supply-demand balance, pricing model, inventory cycle, and futures structure, and output directional signals suitable for backtesting. Focuses on crude oil (global pricing anchor), gold (safe haven + inflation hedge), and copper (economic barometer).

Core Concepts

1. Crude Oil Supply-Demand Balance

Key supply-side variables:

Variable	Data Source	Frequency	Direction of Impact
OPEC production	OPEC monthly report	Monthly	Production cuts → oil price ↑
US shale output	EIA weekly report	Weekly	Higher output → oil price ↓
Rig count (Baker Hughes)	Baker Hughes	Weekly	Leads production by 3-6 months
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)	EIA	Weekly	SPR release → short-term oil price ↓

Key demand-side variables:

• IEA global oil demand forecast (quarterly)
• China crude imports (customs monthly data)
• US gasoline demand (EIA weekly report, implied demand)
• Global PMI (leads demand by 1-2 months)

Supply-demand balance signals:

# Simplified supply-demand judgment
if opec_compliance > 90% and us_rig_count_declining:
    supply_signal = "tight"  # bullish for oil
elif opec_compliance < 80% and us_production_rising:
    supply_signal = "loose"  # bearish for oil

if global_pmi > 50 and china_import_yoy > 5%:
    demand_signal = "strong"  # bullish for oil
elif global_pmi < 48 and china_import_yoy < 0:
    demand_signal = "weak"    # bearish for oil

2. Gold Pricing Framework

Four-factor model: