# Earnings Revision

Earnings estimate revisions, guidance analysis, and post-earnings drift (PEAD), track...

- Repository: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (37375 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill earnings-revision -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill earnings-revision -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill earnings-revision -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill earnings-revision -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Earnings estimate revisions, guidance analysis, and post-earnings drift (PEAD), track analyst consensus changes, earnings surprise patterns, and management guidance shifts for US/HK equities.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Earnings Revision & Guidance Analysis

## Overview

Track sell-side analyst estimate revisions, management guidance changes, and post-earnings price drift to generate investment signals. Earnings revisions are among the most persistent and well-documented alpha factors in equity markets, stocks with upward revisions tend to continue outperforming, and vice versa.

## Core Concepts

### 1. Earnings Revision Momentum

**The revision signal hierarchy (strongest to weakest):**

| Signal Type | Description | Typical Alpha (annualized) | Persistence |
|-------------|-------------|---------------------------|-------------|
| Earnings surprise (beat/miss) | Actual EPS vs consensus | 3-8% post-event drift | 60-90 days (PEAD) |
| Consensus revision breadth | % of analysts revising up vs down | 4-6% long-short spread | 3-6 months |
| Estimate magnitude change | Size of revision relative to prior estimate | 3-5% | 1-3 months |
| Guidance revision | Management guidance change vs prior | 5-10% on event | Immediate + 30-60 day drift |
| Whisper number miss/beat | Actual vs buy-side whisper (not official consensus) | 2-4% | 1-2 weeks |

### 2. Key Metrics

**Earnings Surprise:**
```python
# Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)
sue = (actual_eps - consensus_eps) / std_of_forecast_errors

# Interpretation
# SUE > +2: large positive surprise → strong PEAD signal
# SUE < -2: large negative surprise → strong negative PEAD
# |SUE| < 0.5: in-line with expectations → weak signal
```

**Revision Breadth:**
```python
# Revision breadth ratio
breadth = (num_upgrades - num_downgrades) / total_analysts

# Interpretation
# breadth > +0.5: strong consensus upgrade momentum
# breadth < -0.5: strong consensus downgrade momentum
# |breadth| < 0.2: mixed / no clear direction
```

**Estimate Dispersion:**
```python
# Analyst disagreement
dispersion = std_of_estimates / abs(mean_estimate)

The rest: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/blob/HEAD/agent/src/skills/earnings-revision/SKILL.md