# Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk analysis: quantify crisis signals, identify precursors, and build...

- Repository: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (37375 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill geopolitical-risk -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill geopolitical-risk -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill geopolitical-risk -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill geopolitical-risk -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Geopolitical risk analysis: quantify crisis signals, identify precursors, and build event-driven strategies for war, sanctions, and supply disruption scenarios.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Geopolitical Risk Analysis

## Overview

Quantify geopolitical risk signals, identify crisis precursors, and build event-driven strategies that convert narratives such as "war / conflict / sanctions / supply disruption" into actionable multi-asset allocation decisions.

---

## Core Analytical Framework

### 1. Risk Layering Model

```
Layer 1: Structural risk (long-lasting, slow-moving)
  └── Great-power rivalry, alliance structures, nuclear deterrence balance

Layer 2: Situational risk (cyclical escalation, monthly / quarterly scale)
  └── Military exercises, election cycles, sanctions escalation, diplomatic friction

Layer 3: Event risk (sudden shocks, daily / hourly scale)
  └── Military action, assassination, sanctions announcements, nuclear tests
```

### 2. Five Dimensions of Risk Assessment

| Dimension | Description | Quantitative Proxy |
|------|------|-------------|
| **Intensity** | Severity of conflict / sanctions | GPR Index percentile |
| **Persistence** | Expected duration of the crisis | Futures curve contango / backwardation |
| **Transmission** | Spillover into supply chains / finance | CDS spread widening, VIX jump magnitude |
| **Predictability** | Whether the event is already priced in | Option implied volatility skew |
| **Reversibility** | Whether the situation can be resolved through negotiation | Speed of reversal in news sentiment |

---

## Monitoring the Six Major Global Geopolitical Hotspots

### 1. Strait of Hormuz, Oil Transport Chokepoint

**Strategic significance**
- Roughly 20% of global oil supply (about 17 million barrels/day) and 20% of LNG passes through it
- Iran has the ability to disrupt the strait through mines, naval assets, and shore-based missiles
- It is the only export route for Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq

The rest: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/blob/HEAD/agent/src/skills/geopolitical-risk/SKILL.md