# Global Macro

Global macro analysis framework (central bank policy transmission / FX forecasting /...

- Repository: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (37375 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Global macro analysis framework (central bank policy transmission / FX forecasting / geopolitical risk / capital flows), used to build macro factor signals that drive cross-asset allocation.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Global Macro Analysis

## Overview

Builds a macro analysis framework from three dimensions: central-bank policy, exchange-rate regimes, and geopolitics. Outputs quantifiable macro factor signals to drive cross-asset allocation decisions. Core logic: macro cycles determine major asset direction, while micro-level timing is delegated to other skills.

## Core Concepts

### 1. Central Bank Policy Transmission Chain

```
Policy-rate changes → government bond yield curve → credit spreads → financing costs for the real economy → corporate earnings → equity valuation
```

**Monitoring framework for the three major central banks:**

| Central Bank | Core Indicators | Forward Signals | Lagging Confirmation |
|------|---------|---------|---------|
| Federal Reserve (Fed) | FFR, dot plot, SEP | CME FedWatch probabilities | nonfarm payrolls / CPI / PCE |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | Main refinancing rate | Eurozone PMI, HICP | credit growth |
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | YCC band, policy rate | JPY exchange rate, JGB yields | core CPI |

**Historical transmission of Fed hiking / cutting cycles to China A-shares (empirical):**
- Late in a Fed hiking cycle (the last 1-2 hikes), China A-shares often have already priced it in, and the average drawdown of the CSI 300 narrows to -3%
- In the 3 months after the first Fed cut, the CSI 300 has averaged +8.2% (mean of the 2001 / 2007 / 2019 cycles)
- But rate cuts do not automatically mean gains. In 2008, cuts came with recession and China A-shares still fell

### 2. Exchange Rate Forecasting Framework

**Three-layer model:**

| Model | Applicable Horizon | Core Variables | Accuracy |
|------|---------|---------|------|
| Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) | 3-5 years | CPI gap between two countries | Long-term anchor |
| Interest Parity (UIP/CIP) | 3-12 months | rate differential + forward premium/discount | Medium-term direction |
| BEER model | 1-3 years | terms of trade + net foreign inflows + productivity | Equilibrium estimate |

The rest: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/blob/HEAD/agent/src/skills/global-macro/SKILL.md