On-Chain Data Analysis

Overview

Use transparent public blockchain data for analysis, covering network activity, whale-behavior tracking, DeFi liquidity analysis, and on-chain valuation metrics. This provides crypto investing with data dimensions unavailable in traditional finance.

Network Activity Metrics

Core Activity Indicators

Metric	Meaning	Bullish Signal	Bearish Signal
Active addresses	Unique addresses interacting with the network each day	Sustained increase (network adoption rising)	Sustained decline
New addresses	Addresses appearing for the first time each day	Accelerating growth (new users entering)	Shrinkage
Transaction count	Number of on-chain transactions per day	Steady growth	Sharp decline
Transfer value	Total value transferred on-chain per day	Large-value transfer activity	Inactive
Activity / price ratio	Growth in active addresses vs growth in price	Activity growth outpaces price growth	Price rises but activity does not

Activity Analysis Framework

Healthy bull market:
  Price↑ + active addresses↑ + new addresses↑ = driven by real demand

Bubble signal:
  Price↑ + active addresses↓ or flat = capital-driven, not user-driven

Bottoming signal:
  Price↓ + active addresses bottom out and stabilize = speculators exit, real users remain

Historical Reference for BTC Active Addresses

Phase	Active Addresses (daily avg)	BTC Price	Meaning
2020 bear-to-bull transition	0.8-1.0 million	$10k-$20k	Bottom stabilization
2021 bull market	1.0-1.3 million	$30k-$69k	Healthy growth
2022 bear market	0.8-0.9 million	$16k-$30k	Pulled back but did not collapse
2024 bull market	0.9-1.2 million	$40k-$100k	Institution-driven

Whale Tracking

Whale Definition