# Stablecoin Flow

Stablecoin supply and flow analysis, USDT/USDC mint-burn signals, exchange stablecoin...

- Repository: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (37375 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Stablecoin supply and flow analysis, USDT/USDC mint-burn signals, exchange stablecoin reserves, on-chain stablecoin velocity, and capital rotation indicators for crypto market timing.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Stablecoin Flow Analysis

## Overview

Track stablecoin supply changes, exchange reserve movements, and on-chain velocity to gauge crypto market capital flows. Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, etc.) are the "dry powder" of crypto, minting signals new capital entering, burning signals capital leaving, and exchange reserve changes reveal buying/selling intent.

## Core Concepts

### 1. Stablecoin Supply as Market Indicator

**Total stablecoin market cap is the single best proxy for crypto market liquidity.**

```python
# Stablecoin supply growth → crypto market liquidity expansion
# Historical correlation: BTC price and total stablecoin supply r > 0.85

stablecoin_supply = {
    "USDT": 140_000_000_000,    # ~$140B (dominant, ~65% share)
    "USDC": 45_000_000_000,     # ~$45B (~20% share)
    "DAI": 5_000_000_000,       # ~$5B (decentralized)
    "FDUSD": 3_000_000_000,     # ~$3B (Binance ecosystem)
    "USDS": 2_000_000_000,      # ~$2B (Sky/MakerDAO)
}
total = sum(stablecoin_supply.values())
```

**Supply change signals:**

| Supply Change (30d) | Interpretation | Signal |
|--------------------|----------------|--------|
| > +5% | Rapid minting, new capital rushing in | Strong bullish |
| +2% to +5% | Steady capital inflow | Bullish |
| 0% to +2% | Stable, no significant new capital | Neutral |
| -2% to 0% | Mild redemptions | Cautious |
| < -2% | Capital exiting crypto ecosystem | Bearish |

### 2. Mint/Burn Event Analysis

**USDT (Tether) minting signals:**
- Tether mints new USDT → deposits to exchanges → precedes buying activity
- Large mints ($500M+) historically precede BTC rallies by 1-7 days
- Minting often happens in batches: "pre-mint to Tether treasury" → later distributed to exchanges

The rest: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/blob/HEAD/agent/src/skills/stablecoin-flow/SKILL.md