# Thesis Tracker

Buy-side discipline system.

- Repository: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (37375 stars)
- Category: Writing
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Buy-side discipline system. For each holding, maintain a written investment thesis, core thesis in 5 sentences, falsifiable assumptions, red lines, valuation anchors, and re-check it each quarter against new earnings/events. Scores thesis health 1-10 from assumption breakage and red-line triggers, and recommends hold / add / trim / exit. Use it right after buying a stock (to write the thesis) and every earnings season (to check it). Bridges the research→buy→monitor gap that most investors skip.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Investment Thesis Tracker: Post-Buy Discipline

Track an investment thesis for a holding. First use on a company → build the thesis; later uses → quarterly check.

**Supported input**: company name (auto-decide build vs track); `company build` (force rebuild); `company quarterly check` (against latest earnings).

> "Buying is only the beginning. The real work is continuous tracking through the holding period.", Li Lu
>
> "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?", Keynes

## Design Philosophy

Most investors' process is: research → buy → pray. Without systematic post-buy tracking, they: refuse to sell when they should ("wait, it'll come back"); panic-sell when they shouldn't ("down 20%, was I wrong?"); forget why they bought ("why did I buy this again?").

Buffett and Li Lu write down sell conditions **before** buying, then check the thesis each quarter.

## Step 1: Decide the Mode

Check whether a thesis file already exists (use `read_file` on `reports/{company}-thesis.md`): not found → **Build** (Mode A); found → **Track** (Mode B).

---

## Mode A: Build the Investment Thesis

### A0: Data Collection

Use `web_search` to get the current price, valuation (PE/PB/dividend yield), and latest financials. If a research report exists, `read_file` it first. Use `financial_rigor` (`command=verify_valuation`) to verify valuation, `financial_rigor` (`command=verify_market_cap`) to sanity-check market cap.

### A1: Core Thesis (must be writable in ≤200 words)

The thesis must answer 5 questions, one sentence each:

```
I bought {Company} at {price} because:
1. The essence of this business is ___, and I understand how it makes money.
2. Its moat is ___, and it's widening / stable.
3. Management is ___, trustworthy because ___.
4. The current price is a {discount}% to intrinsic value; the margin of safety comes from ___.
5. Even if I'm wrong, downside is contained because ___.
```

The rest: https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/blob/HEAD/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md