# Digital Oracle

Answer prediction questions using market trading data, not opinions.

- Repository: https://github.com/komako-workshop/digital-oracle (907 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-07-26
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add komako-workshop/digital-oracle --skill digital-oracle -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add komako-workshop/digital-oracle --skill digital-oracle -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add komako-workshop/digital-oracle --skill digital-oracle -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add komako-workshop/digital-oracle --skill digital-oracle -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Answer prediction questions using market trading data, not opinions. Use when the user asks probability questions about geopolitics, economics, markets, industries, or any topic where real money is being traded on the outcome. Examples: 'What's the probability of WW3?', 'Will there be a recession?', 'Is AI in a bubble?', 'When will the Russia-Ukraine war end?', 'Is it a good time to buy gold?', 'Will SPY drop 5% this month?', 'Is NVDA options premium overpriced?'. The skill reads prices from prediction markets, commodities, equities, options chains, derivatives, yield curves, and currencies, then cross-validates multiple signals to produce a structured probability report.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# digital-oracle

> Markets are efficient. Price contains all public information. Reading price = reading market consensus.

## Methodology

**Answer questions using only market trading data, no news, opinions, or statistical reports as causal evidence.** If something is true, some market has already priced it in.

Five iron rules:

1. **Trading data only**, prices, volume, open interest, spreads, premiums. Never cite analyst opinions.
2. **Explicit reasoning from price to judgment**, explain clearly "why this price answers this question."
3. **Multi-signal cross-validation**, never conclude from a single signal. At least 3 independent dimensions.
4. **Label the time horizon of each signal**, options price 3 months, equipment orders price 3 years, don't mix them in the same vote.
5. **Structured output**, the final report must follow the Step 5 template: layered signal tables → contradiction analysis → probability scenarios → signal consistency assessment. Do not substitute prose for structured reporting.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Understand the question

Decompose the user's question into:
- **Core variable**: What event or trend?
- **Time window**: Is the user asking about 3 months, 1 year, or 5 years?
- **Priceability**: Is there real money being traded on this outcome?

### Step 2: Select signals

Based on question type, select from the signal menu below. **Don't use just one category, cover at least 3.**

The rest: https://github.com/komako-workshop/digital-oracle/blob/HEAD//SKILL.md