# What If Oracle

Run structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration.

- Repository: https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills (996 stars)
- Category: Testing
- License: MIT license
- Last updated: 2026-07-20
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Run structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration. Use this skill when the user asks speculative questions like "what if...", "what would happen if...", "what are the possibilities", "explore scenarios", "scenario analysis", "possibility space", "what could go wrong", "best case / worst case", "risk analysis", "contingency planning", "strategic options", or any question about uncertain futures. Also trigger when the user faces a fork-in-the-road decision, wants to stress-test an idea, or needs to think through consequences before committing.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# What-If Oracle, Possibility Space Explorer

A structured system for exploring uncertain futures through rigorous multi-branch scenario analysis. Instead of one prediction, the Oracle maps the full **possibility space**, branching timelines where each path has its own logic, probability, and consequences.

Based on the What-If Statement paradigm: the idea that speculative questions ("What if X?") are not idle daydreaming but a **fundamental computing operation**, the mind's way of simulating futures before committing resources to one.

Published research: [The What-If Statement (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18736841) | [IDNA Consolidation v2 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18807387)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18807387)

## Core Principle: 0·IF·1

Every scenario analysis has three elements:

- **0**, The unexpressed state (what hasn't happened yet, the potential)
- **1**, The expressed state (what IS, the current reality)
- **IF**, The conditional bond (the decision, event, or change that transforms 0 into 1)

The quality of the analysis depends on the precision of the IF. A vague "what if things go wrong?" produces vague results. A precise "what if our primary supplier raises prices 30% in Q3?" produces actionable intelligence.

## How to Run the Oracle

### Phase 1, Frame the Question

Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it:

**Decompose into components:**

- **The Variable:** What specific thing changes? (one variable per analysis)
- **The Magnitude:** By how much? (quantify if possible)
- **The Timeframe:** Over what period?
- **The Context:** What's the current state before the change?

**If the question is vague, sharpen it:**

- "What if AI takes over?" → "What if 40% of current knowledge-work tasks are automated by AI within 3 years in [specific industry]?"
- "What if we fail?" → "What if monthly revenue stays below $5K for 6 consecutive months starting now?"

The rest: https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/blob/HEAD/skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md