Outcome KPI Framework

"Doing stuff isn't the point. Achieving stuff is." -- Jeff Gothelf

Defines measurable outcome KPIs for user stories and features. Loaded during Phase 4 (Requirements Crafting) to produce outcome-kpis.md. Synthesizes three frameworks: customer-centric OKRs, lean metrics, and OKR methodology.

The Outcome KPI Formula

Primary template from Gothelf/Seiden. Every KPI answers five questions:

Component	Question	Example
Who	Which user segment?	Returning customers with 2+ orders
Does What	What observable behavior changes?	Complete checkout without contacting support
By How Much	What is the measurable target?	40% reduction in support tickets
Measured By	How do we collect the data?	Support ticket system + checkout analytics
Timeframe	When do we measure?	30 days post-release, then weekly

Formula: [Who] [Does what] [By how much]

Apply as litmus test: if a KPI cannot answer all five components, it measures an output (feature delivery), not an outcome (behavior change).

Good vs Bad KPIs

Bad (Output)	Good (Outcome)
Launch mobile app v2	Mobile users complete purchases 40% more often
Build recommendation engine	Users purchase from recommendations, increasing from 10% to 25%
Deploy onboarding redesign	New users complete onboarding within 24 hours 30% more often
Ship CSV export	Analysts resolve data questions without engineering support 60% of the time

Leading vs Lagging Indicators

From Gothelf/Seiden: business results are lagging -- teams cannot directly influence them. Target leading indicators instead.