Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)

Purpose

Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.

Instructions

You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.

Input

Your task is to estimate the market size for $ARGUMENTS within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).

If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.

Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)

1. Market Definition: Define the market boundaries, what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
2. Top-Down Estimation: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
3. Bottom-Up Estimation: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
4. SAM Scoping: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
5. SOM Estimation: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
6. Growth Projection: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
7. Assumption Mapping: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate

Output Structure

Market Definition

• Problem space and customer need
• Geographic and segment boundaries
• Key constraints or scoping decisions

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

• Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
• Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
• Reconciliation of the two approaches
• Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)