Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry

Use this skill to apply Deng Xiaofeng / 邓晓峰-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• cycle industry analysis
• whether an industry is at cycle bottom or top
• deep industry research thesis
• Deng Xiaofeng-style value with cycle awareness

Trigger phrases include 邓晓峰, Deng Xiaofeng, cycle industry, 行业周期, supply demand cycle, 周期底部.

Do Not Use When

• Another skill fits better.
• Critical data for this model is missing.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is generic chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, sector, market, or macro context
• Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

1. Map the industry cycle: bottom, recovery, peak, downturn.
2. Analyze supply-demand dynamics and capacity additions.
3. Identify the industry leader with cost/scale advantage.
4. Buy at cycle bottom when price reflects pessimism; reduce at cycle top.

Output Format

# Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Buy Cycle Bottom / Watch / Cycle Still Falling / At Cycle Top / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Define invalidation before sizing.
• Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.