# Marks Cycles

Use when evaluating markets through Howard Marks-style second-level thinking, credit...

- Repository: https://github.com/questflowai/investorskills (1900 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-08-23
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill marks-cycles -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill marks-cycles -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill marks-cycles -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill marks-cycles -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Use when evaluating markets through Howard Marks-style second-level thinking, credit cycles, risk premiums, market psychology, and defensive versus aggressive posture.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Howard Marks Cycles

Use this skill to apply Howard Marks-style cycle and risk judgment: identify where markets are in the cycle, compare price to value and risk premium, and decide whether to be defensive or aggressive.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- Market cycle diagnosis
- Credit spread and risk premium review
- Second-level thinking on a crowded view
- Defensive or aggressive portfolio posture
- Whether risk is being rewarded or ignored

Trigger phrases include `Howard Marks`, `cycle`, `second-level thinking`, `risk premium`, `credit cycle`, `defensive`, `aggressive`, and `market psychology`.

## Do Not Use When

- The user needs a precise technical entry only.
- There is no market, valuation, credit, or sentiment context.
- The user asks for a prediction without uncertainty ranges.
- The setup requires leverage or forced timing.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset class or market
- Valuation, yield, spread, or risk premium data
- Credit conditions, liquidity, default risk, and refinancing risk if relevant
- Sentiment, positioning, and consensus view
- Portfolio exposure and drawdown tolerance if posture is requested

## Process

1. Identify the cycle: early, mid, late, stressed, panic, recovery.
2. Separate first-level view from second-level view.
3. Compare price, value, and risk premium.
4. Assess market psychology: fear, greed, complacency, forced selling.
5. Decide posture: defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive.
6. Size by margin for error, not confidence alone.

## Output Format

```md
# Marks Cycle View: [Market]

## Verdict
Defensive / Neutral / Opportunistic / Aggressive / Stand Down

## Cycle Position

## First-Level vs Second-Level View

## Risk Premium

## Market Psychology

## Portfolio Posture

## What Would Change The View

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

The rest: https://github.com/questflowai/investorskills/blob/HEAD/skills/marks-cycles/SKILL.md