Muddy Waters Forensic Short

Use this skill to apply Muddy Waters / Carson Block-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• forensic short report
• fraud or channel-stuffing suspicion
• related-party complexity
• cash/revenue verification
• China/overseas complex structure short

Trigger phrases include Muddy Waters, Carson Block, forensic short, channel check, related party, fraud short, cash verification.

Do Not Use When

• Another investor skill fits the setup better.
• Critical primary evidence is unavailable.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded risk.
• The request is generic chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Company, startup, token, report target, or market context
• Primary documents, product data, user/revenue evidence, or research materials
• Time horizon, capital structure, and risk constraints
• Valuation or round pricing if sizing/commitment is requested

Process

1. Map the market's trusted management story.
2. Identify the specific alleged false mechanism.
3. Gather primary evidence: filings, channel checks, related parties, cash trail.
4. Define catalyst, short structure, squeeze/time risk, and invalidation.

Output Format

# Muddy Waters Forensic Short View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Short / Watch / Evidence Incomplete / Structure Risk Too High / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Do not force conviction without evidence.
• Do not ignore incentives, structure, or liquidity/risk constraints.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Do not present this as financial advice.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a specialized judgment module for research workflows, Fund theses, diligence, monitoring, and decision support.