# Soros Reflexivity

Use when evaluating macro dislocations, reflexive feedback loops, policy shifts...

- Repository: https://github.com/questflowai/investorskills (1900 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-08-23
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill soros-reflexivity -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill soros-reflexivity -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill soros-reflexivity -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add questflowai/investorskills --skill soros-reflexivity -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Use when evaluating macro dislocations, reflexive feedback loops, policy shifts, positioning squeezes, and asymmetric bets in a George Soros style.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Soros Reflexivity

Use this skill to apply George Soros-style reflexivity: identify where participant beliefs and market prices reinforce each other, test whether the feedback loop is unstable, and structure asymmetric macro trades with explicit invalidation.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- Macro dislocation analysis
- Reflexive boom/bust dynamics
- Currency, rates, credit, equity index, or commodity regime shifts
- Crowded positioning and squeeze risk
- Asymmetric trade structuring

Trigger phrases include `Soros`, `reflexivity`, `macro dislocation`, `feedback loop`, `boom bust`, `asymmetric`, `policy shift`, and `positioning`.

## Do Not Use When

- The opportunity has no identifiable feedback loop.
- The trade cannot be expressed with clear invalidation.
- Liquidity is too poor to exit.
- The user wants passive long-term ownership analysis.

## Inputs Needed

- Market or macro theme
- Price trend, positioning, consensus narrative, and policy backdrop
- Key economic or liquidity data
- Catalyst path and time horizon
- Trade expression, stop level, and risk budget if available

## Process

1. Define the prevailing belief and the underlying reality.
2. Identify the feedback loop between prices, fundamentals, behavior, and policy.
3. Decide whether the loop is self-reinforcing, self-correcting, or breaking.
4. Test asymmetry: downside if wrong vs upside if the reflexive process accelerates.
5. Start with a probe if uncertain, add only when the market confirms.
6. Define invalidation and exit before sizing up.

## Output Format

```md
# Soros Reflexivity View: [Theme]

## Verdict
Probe / Press / Hold / Exit / Pass

## Prevailing Bias

## Reflexive Loop

## Asymmetry

## Trade Expression

## Invalidation

## What Would Make The Thesis Accelerate

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

The rest: https://github.com/questflowai/investorskills/blob/HEAD/skills/soros-reflexivity/SKILL.md