# Predictor Hand Skill

Expert knowledge for AI forecasting, superforecasting principles, signal taxonomy...

- Repository: https://github.com/RightNow-AI/openfang (18244 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: Apache-2.0
- Last updated: 2026-07-02
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add RightNow-AI/openfang --skill predictor-hand-skill -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add RightNow-AI/openfang --skill predictor-hand-skill -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add RightNow-AI/openfang --skill predictor-hand-skill -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add RightNow-AI/openfang --skill predictor-hand-skill -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Expert knowledge for AI forecasting, superforecasting principles, signal taxonomy, confidence calibration, reasoning chains, and accuracy tracking

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Forecasting Expert Knowledge

## Superforecasting Principles

Based on research by Philip Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project:

1. **Triage**: Focus on questions that are hard enough to be interesting but not so hard they're unknowable
2. **Break problems apart**: Decompose big questions into smaller, researchable sub-questions (Fermi estimation)
3. **Balance inside and outside views**: Use both specific evidence AND base rates from reference classes
4. **Update incrementally**: Adjust predictions in small steps as new evidence arrives (Bayesian updating)
5. **Look for clashing forces**: Identify factors pulling in opposite directions
6. **Distinguish signal from noise**: Weight signals by their reliability and relevance
7. **Calibrate**: Your 70% predictions should come true ~70% of the time
8. **Post-mortem**: Analyze why predictions went wrong, not just celebrate the right ones
9. **Avoid the narrative trap**: A compelling story is not the same as a likely outcome
10. **Collaborate**: Aggregate views from diverse perspectives

---

## Signal Taxonomy

### Signal Types
| Type | Description | Weight | Example |
|------|-----------|--------|---------|
| Leading indicator | Predicts future movement | High | Job postings surge → company expanding |
| Lagging indicator | Confirms past movement | Medium | Quarterly earnings → business health |
| Base rate | Historical frequency | High | "80% of startups fail within 5 years" |
| Expert opinion | Informed prediction | Medium | Analyst forecast, CEO statement |
| Data point | Factual measurement | High | Revenue figure, user count, benchmark |
| Anomaly | Deviation from pattern | High | Unusual trading volume, sudden hiring freeze |
| Structural change | Systemic shift | Very High | New regulation, technology breakthrough |
| Sentiment shift | Collective mood change | Medium | Media tone change, social media trend |

The rest: https://github.com/RightNow-AI/openfang/blob/HEAD/crates/openfang-hands/bundled/predictor/SKILL.md