Cynefin Classification

Classify by cause-effect, then use only the matching response mode. Wrong-domain method is the failure mode.

When to Use

• Unsure whether to run a playbook, analyze, probe, or stabilize.
• A method keeps failing and domain mismatch is plausible.
• A novel or mixed problem needs approach selection before solution work.

When NOT to Use

• Domain and method are already agreed, execute.
• Task is finding a specific cause, not choosing an approach.
• Classification done; switch to the domain method, do not re-label endlessly.
• Pure mechanical edits with no approach uncertainty.

Procedure

1. State the unit. Name the decision, incident, or subsystem; if mixed, list separable parts.
2. Probe cause-effect. Is the link obvious, expert-analyzable, retrospective only, or imperceptible in turbulence? Check predictability, urgency, and probe safety.
3. Assign one domain per unit:
   • Clear, obvious → Sense → Categorize → Respond with a runbook.
   • Complicated, expert-analyzable → Sense → Analyze → Respond; several valid answers.
   • Complex, emergent → Probe → Sense → Respond with safe-to-fail probes; amplify/dampen signals.
   • Chaotic, no safe sensing time → Act → Sense → Respond; stabilize first.
   • Disorder, unknown → split and classify each part.
4. Mismatch check. Reject Clear if its runbook fails; Complicated if analysis cannot predict; Complex if probing is unsafe; Chaotic once safe probing becomes possible.
5. Commit and stop. Output domain + first actions. Re-classify only on evidence of domain shift.

Stop when every unit has one domain, first actions, and a falsifier, or disorder is decomposed.

Output