# Thinking Effectuation

Under genuine uncertainty with no reliable forecast, inventory means, cap downside at...

- Repository: https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills (1690 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-08-07
- Runs scripts: no, instructions only

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-effectuation -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-effectuation -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-effectuation -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-effectuation -g -a gemini-cli -y`
Claude Code plugin marketplace: `/plugin marketplace add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills`

## Description

Under genuine uncertainty with no reliable forecast, inventory means, cap downside at affordable loss, act for commitments, and let goals emerge from controllable moves.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Effectuation

Under Knightian uncertainty, start from available means and affordable loss, not a fixed goal and predicted return. Create the path through controllable action and real commitments.

## When to Use

- The market, technology, or problem is novel enough that outcome probabilities are not trustworthy.
- Means are clearer than the goal: identity, skills, assets, and network exist before a fixed target does.
- A small action can buy information or a partner commitment without risking ruin.
- Plans keep breaking because the environment shifts faster than forecasts.

## When NOT to Use

- The path is predictable: known market, knowable unit economics, established playbook → use causal planning.
- A single wrong step is ruinous or irreversible → de-risk first; do not treat affordable-loss steps as free.
- The goal is already fixed and resources are the only uncertainty → plan to the goal.
- Routine execution with settled requirements → act; do not re-inventory means.

## Procedure

The rest: https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/blob/HEAD/skills/thinking-effectuation/SKILL.md