Thinking Probabilistic
Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk, anchor on base rates, give ranges...
Install
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-probabilistic -g -a claude-code -y- Repository
- tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills1.7k
- Category
- Engineering
- Updated
- 3mo ago
- License
- MIT
- Context cost
- Lightabout 1,041 tokens
- Runs scripts
- No, instructions only
What it does
Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk, anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities into order-of-magnitude bounds.
Probabilistic Thinking
Core rule: State beliefs as numbers and ranges, not vibes. Anchor on a base rate, update with an explicit likelihood, and bound unknowns by factoring them, never invent false precision.
When to Use
- Timeline, effort, or outcome forecasts where the true value is uncertain.
- Risk sizing for a change, migration, deploy, or launch.
- Any moment you are about to state a confident single number you cannot actually know.
- New evidence arrives and a prior estimate should move.
When NOT to Use
- The quantity is measurable or look-up-able, measure or look it up.
- The decision is invariant across the whole plausible range, skip the estimate and act.
- There is no real reference class and you would invent a base rate, label it a guess, not a calibrated forecast.
- You only need a binary gate and already have a decisive observation, do not pad with ceremony.
