Market Top Detector Skill

Purpose

Assess heuristic market top risk using a 6-component scoring system (0-100). Integrates three market risk methodologies:

1. O'Neil - Distribution Day accumulation (institutional selling)
2. Minervini - Leading stock deterioration pattern
3. Monty - Defensive sector rotation signal

Unlike the Bubble Detector (macro/multi-month evaluation), this skill focuses on tactical 2-8 week timing signals that precede 10-20% market corrections.

Score interpretation

Treat the 0-100 composite as a heuristic risk score, not an estimated event probability. A score of 70 does not mean a 70% chance of a top. Risk-budget percentages are policy heuristics, not measured outcome frequencies. Historical patterns are retrospective estimates, not point-in-time evidence. Report no comparable episode when any component is unavailable/invalid or nearest-pattern weighted RMS exceeds 15 points. This tolerance is a predeclared heuristic, not an empirically validated similarity threshold. Follow the point-in-time evaluation protocol before making calibration claims. No measured calibration results are supplied.

When to Use This Skill

English:

• User asks "Is the market topping?" or "Are we near a top?"
• User notices distribution days accumulating
• User observes defensive sectors outperforming growth
• User sees leading stocks breaking down while indices hold
• User asks about reducing equity exposure timing
• User wants to assess correction risk for the next 2-8 weeks

Japanese:

• 「天井が近い？」「今は利確すべき？」
• ディストリビューションデーの蓄積を懸念
• ディフェンシブセクターがグロースをアウトパフォーム
• 先導株が崩れ始めているが指数はまだ持ちこたえている
• エクスポージャー縮小のタイミング判断
• 今後2〜8週間の調整リスクを評価したい

Prerequisites