# Market Top Detector

Assesses heuristic market top risk using O'Neil Distribution Days, Minervini Leading...

- Repository: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills (3536 stars)
- Category: Engineering
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: yes, review before use

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Assesses heuristic market top risk using O'Neil Distribution Days, Minervini Leading Stock Deterioration, and Monty Defensive Sector Rotation. Generates a 0-100 composite score with risk zone classification. Use when user asks about market top risk, distribution days, defensive rotation, leadership breakdown, or whether to reduce equity exposure. Focuses on 2-8 week tactical timing signals for 10-20% corrections.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Market Top Detector Skill

## Purpose

Assess heuristic market top risk using a 6-component scoring system (0-100). Integrates three market risk methodologies:

1. **O'Neil** - Distribution Day accumulation (institutional selling)
2. **Minervini** - Leading stock deterioration pattern
3. **Monty** - Defensive sector rotation signal

Unlike the Bubble Detector (macro/multi-month evaluation), this skill focuses on **tactical 2-8 week timing signals** that precede 10-20% market corrections.

## Score interpretation

Treat the 0-100 composite as a **heuristic risk score**, not an estimated event
probability. A score of 70 does not mean a 70% chance of a top. Risk-budget
percentages are policy heuristics, not measured outcome frequencies.
Historical patterns are retrospective estimates, not point-in-time evidence.
Report **no comparable episode** when any component is unavailable/invalid or
nearest-pattern weighted RMS exceeds 15 points. This tolerance is a predeclared
heuristic, not an empirically validated similarity threshold.
Follow [the point-in-time evaluation protocol](references/point_in_time_evaluation.md)
before making calibration claims. No measured calibration results are supplied.

## When to Use This Skill

**English:**
- User asks "Is the market topping?" or "Are we near a top?"
- User notices distribution days accumulating
- User observes defensive sectors outperforming growth
- User sees leading stocks breaking down while indices hold
- User asks about reducing equity exposure timing
- User wants to assess correction risk for the next 2-8 weeks

**Japanese:**
- 「天井が近い？」「今は利確すべき？」
- ディストリビューションデーの蓄積を懸念
- ディフェンシブセクターがグロースをアウトパフォーム
- 先導株が崩れ始めているが指数はまだ持ちこたえている
- エクスポージャー縮小のタイミング判断
- 今後2〜8週間の調整リスクを評価したい

## Prerequisites

The rest: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/blob/HEAD/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md