News Reaction Failure Analyzer
Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative...
Install
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill news-reaction-failure-analyzer -g -a claude-code -y- Repository
- tradermonty/claude-trading-skills3.5k
- Category
- Testing
- Updated
- 3d ago
- License
- MIT
- Context cost
- Mediumabout 2,122 tokens
- Runs scripts
- Yes, review before use
What it does
Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position, step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT, reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.
News Reaction Failure Analyzer
Overview
Implements step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process: once a market
is flagged as crowded (cot-contrarian-detector, step 1), check whether it
FAILED to react to news that should have rewarded the crowd. A crowded-long
market that doesn't rally on genuinely bullish news, or a crowded-short
market that doesn't sell off on genuinely bearish news, is the core
behavioral tell that the crowd has run out of buying/selling power, this
is the confirmation step that turns "crowded" into a contrarian setup
candidate (steps 3-5, still manual: price-action confirmation, entry, exit).
Why this isn't a naive failure-ratio check: an earlier design flagged
"news failure" whenever fewer than half the relevant events "responded", but under pure noise, roughly 69% of individual events fail to respond by
chance, so that rule would CONFIRM on random noise 48-83% of the time
depending on sample size. This skill instead requires the market to have
moved significantly against the crowd's favorable news (a drift-
significance test with a Monte-Carlo-verified null false-positive bound),
never merely "didn't respond enough." See
references/news-failure-patterns.md for the full statistical rationale.
When to Use This Skill
English:
- "Did the market shrug off [event] even though [asset] is crowded long/short?"
- "Run a news-failure check on [symbol]"
- "Is [symbol] confirmed for a Shapiro-style contrarian setup?"
- After
cot-contrarian-detectorflags a market CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT and the user wants to move to step 2
Japanese:
- 「この市場は好材料に反応しなかった？」
- 「COTで偏っているこの銘柄のニュース失敗を確認して」
Do NOT use when:
- The market isn't crowded (NEUTRAL classification), this skill refuses
fail-closed without an explicit
--directionoverride - No curated events JSON exists yet, WebSearch must run first (Phase 2 below); never fabricate events or URLs to get a verdict
