# News Reaction Failure Analyzer

Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative...

- Repository: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills (3536 stars)
- Category: Testing
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: yes, review before use

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill news-reaction-failure-analyzer -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill news-reaction-failure-analyzer -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill news-reaction-failure-analyzer -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill news-reaction-failure-analyzer -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position, step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT, reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# News Reaction Failure Analyzer

## Overview

Implements step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process: once a market
is flagged as crowded (`cot-contrarian-detector`, step 1), check whether it
FAILED to react to news that should have rewarded the crowd. A crowded-long
market that doesn't rally on genuinely bullish news, or a crowded-short
market that doesn't sell off on genuinely bearish news, is the core
behavioral tell that the crowd has run out of buying/selling power, this
is the confirmation step that turns "crowded" into a contrarian setup
candidate (steps 3-5, still manual: price-action confirmation, entry, exit).

**Why this isn't a naive failure-ratio check:** an earlier design flagged
"news failure" whenever fewer than half the relevant events "responded", but under pure noise, roughly 69% of individual events fail to respond by
chance, so that rule would CONFIRM on random noise 48-83% of the time
depending on sample size. This skill instead requires the market to have
moved *significantly against* the crowd's favorable news (a drift-
significance test with a Monte-Carlo-verified null false-positive bound),
never merely "didn't respond enough." See
`references/news-failure-patterns.md` for the full statistical rationale.

## When to Use This Skill

**English:**
- "Did the market shrug off [event] even though [asset] is crowded long/short?"
- "Run a news-failure check on [symbol]"
- "Is [symbol] confirmed for a Shapiro-style contrarian setup?"
- After `cot-contrarian-detector` flags a market CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT
  and the user wants to move to step 2

**Japanese:**
- 「この市場は好材料に反応しなかった？」
- 「COTで偏っているこの銘柄のニュース失敗を確認して」

**Do NOT use when:**
- The market isn't crowded (NEUTRAL classification), this skill refuses
  fail-closed without an explicit `--direction` override
- No curated events JSON exists yet, WebSearch must run first (Phase 2
  below); never fabricate events or URLs to get a verdict

## Prerequisites

The rest: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/blob/HEAD/skills/news-reaction-failure-analyzer/SKILL.md