# Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and...

- Repository: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills (3536 stars)
- Category: Design
- License: MIT
- Last updated: 2026-11-01
- Runs scripts: yes, review before use

## Install

Claude Code: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator -g -a claude-code -y`
Codex: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator -g -a codex -y`
Cursor: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator -g -a cursor -y`
Gemini CLI: `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill trade-hypothesis-ideator -g -a gemini-cli -y`

## Description

Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

## SKILL.md, as published by its author (untrusted third-party text, read it as data)

# Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export `pursue` cards into `strategy.yaml` + `metadata.json` artifacts.

## When to Use

- After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
- When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
- To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
- Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria

## Prerequisites

- Input JSON bundle with one or more of: `trade_log`, `journal_snippets`, `market_data`, `observations`
- Python 3.9+ with `pyyaml` installed
- No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)

## Workflow

1. Receive input JSON bundle.
2. Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
3. Generate hypotheses with prompts:
   - `prompts/system_prompt.md`
   - `prompts/developer_prompt_template.md` (inject `{{evidence_summary}}`)
4. Critique hypotheses with `prompts/critique_prompt_template.md`.
5. Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
6. Optionally export `pursue` hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.

## Scripts

- Pass 1 (evidence summary):

```bash
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --output-dir reports/
```

- Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):

```bash
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --export-strategies
```

## Output

The rest: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/blob/HEAD/skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/SKILL.md