Us Market Bubble Detector
Evaluates market bubble risk through quantitative data-driven analysis using the...
Install
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill us-market-bubble-detector -g -a claude-code -y- Repository
- tradermonty/claude-trading-skills3.5k
- Category
- Engineering
- Updated
- 3d ago
- License
- MIT
- Context cost
- Mediumabout 3,000 tokens
- Runs scripts
- Yes, review before use
What it does
Evaluates market bubble risk through quantitative data-driven analysis using the revised Minsky/Kindleberger framework v2.1. Prioritizes objective metrics (Put/Call, VIX, margin debt, breadth, IPO data) over subjective impressions. Features strict qualitative adjustment criteria with confirmation bias prevention. Supports practical investment decisions with mandatory data collection and mechanical scoring. Use when user asks about bubble risk, valuation concerns, or profit-taking timing.
US Market Bubble Detection Skill (Revised v2.1)
Key Revisions in v2.1
Critical Changes from v2.0:
- ✅ Mandatory Quantitative Data Collection - Use measured values, not impressions or speculation
- ✅ Clear Threshold Settings - Specific numerical criteria for each indicator
- ✅ Two-Phase Evaluation Process - Quantitative evaluation → Qualitative adjustment (strict order)
- ✅ Stricter Qualitative Criteria - Max +3 points (reduced from +5), requires measurable evidence
- ✅ Confirmation Bias Prevention - Explicit checklist to avoid over-scoring
- ✅ Granular Risk Phases - Added "Elevated Risk" phase (8-9 points) for nuanced risk management
When to Use This Skill
Use this skill when:
English:
- User asks "Is the market in a bubble?" or "Are we in a bubble?"
- User seeks advice on profit-taking, new entry timing, or short-selling decisions
- User reports social phenomena (non-investors entering, media frenzy, IPO flood)
- User mentions narratives like "this time is different" or "revolutionary technology" becoming mainstream
- User consults about risk management for existing positions
Japanese:
- ユーザーが「今の相場はバブルか?」と尋ねる
- 投資の利確・新規参入・空売りのタイミング判断を求める
- 社会現象(非投資家の参入、メディア過熱、IPO氾濫)を観察し懸念を表明
- 「今回は違う」「革命的技術」などの物語が主流化している状況を報告
- 保有ポジションのリスク管理方法を相談
Evaluation Process (Strict Order)
Phase 1: Mandatory Quantitative Data Collection
CRITICAL: Always collect the following data before starting evaluation
1.1 Market Structure Data (Highest Priority)
□ Put/Call Ratio (CBOE Equity P/C)
- Source: CBOE DataShop or web_search "CBOE put call ratio"
- Collect: 5-day moving average
□ VIX (Fear Index)
- Source: Yahoo Finance ^VIX or web_search "VIX current"
- Collect: Current value + percentile over past 3 months
□ Volatility Indicators
- 21-day realized volatility
- Historical position of VIX (determine if in bottom 10th percentile)
