Skills

Thesis Drift

AI Berkshire skill: 投资论文漂移检测:分清事实变化与措辞变化.

Install

npx skills add xbtlin/ai-berkshire --skill thesis-drift -g -a claude-code -y
Repository
xbtlin/ai-berkshire17k
Category
Engineering
Updated
3d ago
License
MIT
Context cost
Lightabout 1,470 tokens
Runs scripts
No, instructions only

What it does

AI Berkshire skill: 投资论文漂移检测:分清事实变化与措辞变化. Source: skills/thesis-drift.md.

Codex adapter note

This skill is generated from skills/thesis-drift.md so Claude Code and Codex users share one canonical workflow.

  • Treat $ARGUMENTS as the user's request in the current Codex thread.
  • When the source mentions Claude-only surfaces such as Task, Agent, WebSearch, Bash, Read, or Write, use the closest Codex capability available in this session: subagents when available, web search when needed, shell commands for local tools, and normal file edits for workspace files.
  • Use shared project tools from tools/ in this repository. Prefer running commands from the repository root with paths like python3 tools/financial_rigor.py ...; if the current thread starts outside the repo, locate the actual checkout path first instead of assuming a fixed home-directory path.
  • Before starting research, run the date command to confirm today's date; treat it as the baseline for "latest" data and state the data cutoff date in the report header. Never assume the current date from training data.
  • Preserve the research quality rules from AGENTS.md: cross-check financial data, use exact arithmetic tools for valuation/math, and clearly label uncertainty and source gaps.

投资论文漂移检测:分清事实变化与措辞变化

对 $ARGUMENTS 执行投资论文漂移检测。

支持输入格式:

  • 公司名 旧报告路径 新报告路径, 指定两份研究报告或论文快照进行对比
  • 公司名 reports/{公司名}-thesis-旧日期.md reports/{公司名}-thesis-新日期.md, 对比两份带日期的论文快照
  • 公司名, 自动查找 reports/{公司名}-thesis.md 及同目录历史快照;如果没有基线则转入缺失基线处理

"当事实改变时,我就改变想法。你呢?", , 凯恩斯

"股价波动不是论文漂移,事实变了才是。", , AI Berkshire

设计理念

长期持仓最难的不是每天读新闻,而是区分三件事:

  • 事实改变:收入、利润率、竞争格局、管理层行为、资本配置发生可验证变化
  • 价格改变:市场情绪或估值倍数变化,但生意本身未变
  • 措辞改变:两份报告表达不同,但底层证据和判断没有变化

投资论文漂移检测的目标是:只在证据变化时承认论文变化。不能因为报告换了写法就制造漂移,也不能因为股价涨跌就误判基本面。

本 Skill 依赖 /thesis-tracker 输出的结构化维度:核心假设清单、红线清单、估值锚点、追踪记录表。没有这些结构时,先补齐基线,再做漂移检测。

执行流程

第一步:判断操作模式

Read the whole SKILL.md on GitHub

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