PM Constraint Arbitrage

Use this skill when the user asks whether related markets are mispriced relative to each other, for example "does P(A) exceed P(B) even though A implies B?", or whether a cross-venue price gap survives fees.

Tools

MCP server (pip install oracle3, then run oracle3-mcp):

• search_markets, get_quote, get_orderbook to find markets and read executable prices.
• check_constraint_live to fetch quotes and fee schedules and evaluate a relation.
• check_constraint to evaluate a relation on quotes you supply.
• trading_fee to price a single fill under a venue's schedule.
• paper_order, paper_portfolio to paper-trade the legs.

Python API: oracle3.arbitrage.check_constraint and oracle3.fees.

Relations

Relation	Bound	Quotes, in order
implication	P(A) <= P(B) when A implies B	A, B
exclusivity	probabilities sum to at most 1	every outcome
complement	P(A) + P(B) = 1	A, B
same_event	P(A) = P(B), one event on two venues	A, B
event_sum	probabilities sum to exactly 1	every outcome

Steps

1. Find the markets with search_markets and read both markets' resolution rules with get_market.
2. Decide which relation holds. This is a judgment about the contract wording, not something the tool can verify.
3. Run check_constraint_live with the relation and the markets in the order above.
4. Read best.gross_edge_per_contract (edge before fees), best.fees_per_contract and best.net_edge_per_contract.
5. Only if the net edge is positive and the book is deep enough, paper-trade each leg with paper_order at a limit no worse than the quoted ask.

Hard rules